Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day visit to the United Kingdom (UK) on July 23-24 will focus on increasing bilateral trade, and the signing of the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in London on Thursday. The PM will also visit the Maldives while returning from the UK. In a statement, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said Modi will hold wide-ranging talks with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and the two sides will review the progress of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). Its specific focus, the MEA said, would be on trade and economy, technology and innovation, defence and security, climate, health, education, and people-to-people ties. Modi is also expected to call on King Charles during his fourth visit as PM to the UK. In the second leg of his visit, the PM will be in the Maldives on July 25 and 26. This will be his third visit to the Maldives, and the first visit by a foreign head of state or government to Maldives during the presidency of Mohamed Muizzu. The two leaders will take stock of the progress in the implementation of the India-Maldives Joint Vision for a ‘Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership’, adopted during Muizzu’s state visit to India in October 2024. In Kathmandu, Nepal’s foreign ministry said on Sunday that Nepal Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli will pay an official visit to India towards mid-September, a two-day visit starting on September 16. Oli, the chairperson of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), assumed the office of prime minister for the fourth time last July. He had opted to visit China for his maiden foreign outing, breaking the tradition of visiting India as the first destination after assuming the post of prime minister.
Source: The Economic Times
Currently, cotton-based textile sector has 5% GST, except for garments priced above ₹1,000. These garments attract 12% duty. However, in the Man-Made Fibre (MMF) sector, the GST on PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) and MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) that are critical raw materials for polyester production is 18%, MMF filament and spun yarn attract 12% duty, fabric and garments are at5 %, and garments and fabric priced above Rs. 1,000 apiece are at 12%. There should be no inverted duty structure and there should be a fibre-neutral rate which is the lowest in the GST slabs, said RK Vij, secretary general of Polyester Textiles Apparel Industry Association. If the industry should achieve the target of $100 billion annual exports and $250 billion domestic sales by 2030, all sectors of the textile industry should grow. For now, there is no major expansion in the pipeline for three years in the viscose sector and the cotton sector is not growing. The growth of the MMF sector is crucial and hence, the government should rationalise the GST rates for this sector, right from the raw material stage, he said. According to K. Selvaraju, secretary general of the Southern India Mills Association, garments and fabric priced above ₹2,000 should be levied 12% duty and for the other products across the textile value chain, be it cotton, viscose, or polyester, the rate should be 5%. The micro, small and medium-scale enterprises are struggling when funds are blocked in tax paid for inputs. MMF-based fabric and garment are the most affordable for the common man. And, hence, MMF sector should also be brought under uniform 5% duty. Further, textile and apparel sector is the highest job-generating industry and it should attract investments to create more jobs. Rationalisation of the GST rates will help make investments viable, he said.
Source: The Hindu
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has launched a system to share monthly industrial production trends with relevant ministries to address sector-specific slowdowns. This follows the release of IIP data and includes updates on inflation factors. The initiative aims to enable timely policy responses.
Source: The Economic Times
Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, again reiterated the government's stand on trade deals, stating that India will enter into internationaltrade agreements only if they serve the country's interests. Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, while addressing the session 'Creating Global Impact Towards Viksit Bharat', organised by ASSOCHAM, said, "If India gets a good trade deal, we will go ahead with it. If not, we won't, the Minister stated firmly. Talking to reporters after the event, the Minister further said, "I've already mentioned that we don't negotiate through media, we negotiate in the negotiating room. Talks are ongoing, and once the team is back, we will get feedback on the response and the progress." Speaking to the industry leaders and entrepreneurs, the Minister stressed the importance of mindset change within the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector. He called for a shift towards collective growth and mutual support between small and large firms. "We need targets, guidance, and a change in mindset. Big or small, firms must grow together," he added. "We must support each other and be vocal for local," he said. He also emphasised the importance of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), focusing on research, innovation, quality, and scaling up to compete globally. The Minister urged MSME stakeholders to actively inform the government about non-tariff barriers that are affecting their businesses. Speaking to an industry player, Goyal stated that the government will address the industry's concerns and work towards resolving them only if industry players convey their concerns. Reflecting on the broader economic framework, the Minister compared the current banking system with that under the previous UPA government. He noted that the PM Modi-led administration had successfully restructured the banking sector. Goyal stated that during the UPA regime, the banking sector collapsed under rising NPAs. "We have restructured it in a transparent manner. Today, the banking system is robust and performing well," the Union Minister added.
Source: The Economic Times
India’s bank loan growth dropped to 9.4% as of June 27, its lowest since March 2022, while deposit growth rose to 10%, outpacing credit demand. Despite rate cuts and easing liquidity, credit growth slowed due to weak investment demand. Economists suggest structural reforms in tariffs, trade, FDI, and ease of business are needed to revive loan demand and boost exports.
Source: The Economic Times
India’s crude import bill dropped nearly 19% in Q1 FY26, thanks to discounted Russian oil. As Russia emerges as India’s top supplier, experts warn of potential risks from US secondary sanctions. Explore the impact on sourcing strategy, refinery economics, and energy security. India’s crude import bill declined by 18.6% during the first three months of financial year 2025-26, reaching $30.6 billion compared to $37.6 billion in the same period of FY24, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. The decline in the import bill can be attributed to India’s heavy reliance on discounted Russian barrels. The country imported 62.1 million tonnes of crude oil during Apr-Jun, largely unchanged from last year. India, which meets 85% of its crude oil requirements via imports, has ramped purchases of Russian crude since the Eurasian country’s war with neighbouring Ukraine broke out in early 2022. The discounted Russian oil helped the country control the forex outgo for the key energy source. Russian crude fuels India’s refining margins. The sharp pivot toward Russia is not just opportunistic, but structural. Indian refiners re-optimized their crude diet to incorporate higher volumes of Urals and ESPO, aided by blending strategies, flexible CDU (Crude Distillation Unit) configurations, and crude assay recalibration, said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at Kpler. This reflects a shift from traditional Middle Eastern dependence toward a more Atlantic-Pacific diversified mix. In 2020-2021, Russia accounted for only ~2–3% of India’s crude imports. Post-war, its share skyrocketed to ~16% in 2022, and further to ~38% in 2023–2024, overtaking all traditional suppliers. This shift reflects India’s opportunistic procurement of deeply discounted Urals crude amid Western sanctions on Russia. Once the top or second-largest supplier, Saudi Arabia’s share declined from 18% in 2020 to 13.6% in 2024. Competitive pricing from Russia and diversification of India’s crude basket likely contributed to the erosion, Ritolia said.
India’s reliance on crude oil imports increased to 81.3% during the period, up from 80.2% in the same period of last year, amid rising demand. During the month of June, the country imported 19.8 million tonnes of crude oil, up from 18.8 million tonnes. In value terms, the crude oil import bill declined 13% last month to $9.7 billion.
Geopolitical risks loom as US eyes secondary sanctions
The US recently said it could impose 100% tariffs on Russia and “secondary tariffs” on countries importing its oil – mainly India and China – if Russia didn’t agree to a deal to end the Ukraine war in 50 days. Unfazed by NATO secretary general Mark Rutte’s blunt warning of “100% secondary sanctions,” the government on Thursday indicated it felt “no pressure” as far as purchase of oil from Russia or any other country of its choice was concerned. “We will buy from wherever we have to because the prime minister’s commitment is to the Indian consumer,” oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri said, without explicitly referring to Russia.
Analysts, however, warn that the US’s proposed secondary tariff on countries buying Russian oil could severely disrupt Indian supplies while also resulting in an increase in the country’s oil import bill, as the country will lose its access to discounted barrels.
Today, Russia continues to serve as a strategic cornerstone in India’s crude oil sourcing strategy. The increase in Russian crude intake directly correlates with maximizing gross refining margins (GRMs), particularly for PSU refineries that benefited from cheap Urals, converting them into high-yield diesel during strong crack spreads, Ritolia explained.
Several refineries continue processing Russian grades at high throughput, prioritizing commercial advantage over operational cycles. The replacement of traditional Arab Heavy and Kuwaiti blends with Russian Urals has resulted in a heavier and sourer overall crude slate for India since 2022. “This altered product yields (e.g., higher VGO output), prompting operational tweaks in FCC and hydrocracker units to maintain product output balances,” Ritolia said. Looking ahead, Kpler estimates Russia to remain India’s largest crude supplier (35-40%), supported by price competitiveness and techno-economics. However, this dominance could face pressure if the West escalates enforcement of secondary sanctions targeting financial or shipping facilitators. “Such a scenario could either reduce Russian volumes or push Indian refiners to seek greater compliance safeguards and increase diversification or force Indian refiners to move towards the Middle East, Latam or even Waf and Canadian barrels,” said Ritolia.
Meanwhile, imports from the Middle East are expected to stabilize in the 35–40% range, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE continuing to play key roles. India is also expected to sustain its diversification efforts, tapping additional volumes from Africa, Latin America, and the United States to optimize refinery economics, balance geopolitical exposure, and enhance energy security.
Source: Financial Express
As the US prepares to slap steep tariffs on Bangladeshi exports, the country’s vital textile sector faces a crisis that could shift global fashion dynamics and hand major European retailers a pricing edge. One of the world’s top textile exporters, Bangladesh, now sees its flagship industry under pressure amid growing political turmoil.
This dual pressure notwithstanding, the sector also sees a window of opportunity for European buyers, particularly Spanish retail giants Inditex and Mango, industry insiders told EFE.
Spain’s pivotal role
The European Union is the top market for Bangladeshi garments, with imports reaching nearly $20 billion in 2024. Spain alone accounted for over $3.6 billion of that, led by Inditex, which operates some 250 factories in the South Asian country.
If exports destined for the US are diverted to Europe, the resulting supply glut could trigger a price war between Bangladeshi manufacturers, giving European retailers more negotiating power.
A 50% tariff wall
The crisis escalated earlier this month when US President Donald Trump announced a 35 percent tariff hike on all Bangladeshi goods starting August 1.“With the existing 15–16% tariff, this brings the total to over 50%,” said Zahid Hussain, former chief economist at the World Bank in Dhaka.That rate would severely undercut Bangladesh’s competitiveness against rivals like Vietnam, which has negotiated a stable 20 percent tariff with the US. Finance Advisor Salehuddin Ahmed said the US rationale, its trade deficit with Bangladesh, is flawed. “Ours is just $6.2 billion, compared to Vietnam’s $125 billion. There’s no justification,” he said.
Geopolitics and pressure
Observers say Washington’s move is also about strategic leverage. “The US wants to pull Bangladesh away from China, both economically and militarily,” said one business leader who spoke on condition of anonymity. But Dhaka’s current political vacuum complicates the matter. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus leads an unelected technocratic interim government, further weakening Bangladesh’s position at the negotiating table.
Industry on edge
The uncertainty has already begun to sting. Walmart and other American buyers have reportedly suspended orders, and industry analysts forecast a drop of up to 60 percent in US garment exports if the tariffs proceed. Trade Advisor Sheikh Bashir Uddin said Bangladesh is offering concessions, such as increased US imports, to avoid the looming tariff cliff. “We hope the US will set the tariffs at a rational level,” he said after the most recent round of talks. With the Aug. 1 deadline approaching, a core segment of the global fashion supply chain is hanging in the balance, threatened by geopolitics, trade wars, and fragile governance.
Source: EFE.com
Importation of textile products into Nigeria rose astronomically by 297.8 percent within five years to N726.18 billion in 2024 from N182.53 billion in 2020. Data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that textile imports have risen consistently from 2020 when it was N182.5 billion, N278.8 billion in 2021, N365.5 billion in 2022, and N377.1 billion in 2023. However, an industrial investment expert, Gagan Gupta, has said that the once-thriving textile industry in Nigeria could be revived through bold reforms and targeted infrastructure investment. Gupta, who is the founder and CEO of Arise Integrated Industrial Platform, ARISE IIP, a developer and operator of industrial ecosystems across Africa, made this assertion recently while speaking on the theme, “ The Journey to Making Africa a Global Manufacturing Hub”. According to him, Nigeria meets much of its textile demand locally, noting that the country is rich in cotton and can build competitive value chains if the right frameworks are in place,and thus position itself as a major player in the $10.3 billion global apparel export market. He however stressed that Nigeria will continue to miss out on one of its most promising industrial opportunities if urgent action is not taken. Gupta noted that local businesses in Nigeria frequently struggle with inadequate access to funding and working capital, adding that securing raw materials remains another major obstacle, as does the high cost of foreign exchange, which continues to inflate the price of imported inputs and machinery.
His words: “While Nigeria has the raw materials, a large labour force, and a growing consumer market, these advantages remain dormant due to the absence of a clear policy framework, infrastructural bottlenecks, and weak industrial systems. “Without a deliberate push to modernise production facilities, improve transport networks, ensure steady access to power, and facilitate access to finance for manufacturers, Nigeria and other African countries will continue to import what they could be exporting. “To truly unlock the potential of its textile and apparel industry, Nigeria must commit to long-term reforms that prioritise value addition, support local enterprises, and integrate the sector into regional and global value chains.” He said that transformation is possible when policy aligns with investment and targeted support, adding that reversing the trend of raw material export and dependence on imported finished goods requires a coordinated push from both the public and private sectors.
Source: Vanguard News
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 74.5 (2016=100), following a 0.4 per cent drop in April. Over the six months from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.5 per cent—worsening from the 1 per cent decline recorded in the prior six-month period, indicating sustained economic headwinds. “The UK LEI continued to slide in May, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. May’s decline in the UK LEI was driven primarily by weaker consumer expectations, housing sales expectations, and an increase in unemployment claims,” said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, slipped by 0.1 per cent in May to 107.4, offsetting a modest rise in April. The CEI grew by just 0.3 per cent over the past six months, marking a sharp slowdown compared to 1 per cent growth in the previous half-year, TCB said in a release.
“Overall, the components breakdown suggests that the current headwinds are concentrated in the consumer sector and the labour market amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Despite recurring monthly declines, the 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI remained above the recession threshold, and there was no warning signal either in May, as the diffusion index remained above 50. Overall, the LEI reading suggests that economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025 but will remain positive. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025, after 1.1 per cent in 2024,” Li added.
Source: Fibre2fashion
Fitch Ratings recently updated the US effective tariff rate (ETR) monitor, its interactive tariff tool. The US ETR will jump to 19.4 per cent from 14.1 per cent based on the fact that higher reciprocal tariffs and copper duties come into force on August 1, in line with the rates specified in recent letters and announced deals. President Donald Trump extended the pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs announced in April and sent letters to countries setting forth new tariff rates, which range from 25 per cent to 50 per cent. For now, the United States maintains a 10-per cent baseline tariff for most countries that have not received letters, although Trump stated he may set a blanket tariff of 10 per cent to 15 per cent for around 150 countries. This presents additional upside risk to current ETR levels, Fitch Ratings noted in a release. New trade deals have also been announced in the last week for Vietnam and Indonesia that establish reciprocal tariff rates of 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively. The threatened tariff increases represent a significant increase from existing tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs on European Union goods would increase to 30 per cent from 20 per cent, resulting in ETRs for individual EU countries that range from around 12 per cent to over 30 per cent. The ETR represents total duties as a percent of total imports and changes with shifts in import share by country of origin and product mix. Bangladesh would have the highest ETR under the August 1 tariff regime at around 50 per cent. This incorporates the 35-per cent rate announced in the tariff letters and the 15-per cent rate that was already in place heading into 2025. The ETR approximates the announced tariff rate as Bangladesh does not benefit from tariff carveouts. There are no changes to the reciprocal tariff rate for China, and the ETR for China is unchanged at 41.4 per cent.
Source: Fibre2fashion
