India will be a $ 4 trillion economy in 2024-25 and surpass Japan by early next fiscal to become the world's fourth largest economy, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Sanjeev Sanyal said on Thursday. Sanyal further said that a 7 per cent economic growth rate will be a 'very good' growth rate for India, given various constraints, including the country's weak exports. "So, this financial year, we will become a $4 trillion economy," he said at an event here. Recently, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that India is expected to overtake Japan and Germany to emerge as the world's third-largest economy by 2027. Currently, in US dollar terms, India is the fifth largest economy with a size of about $3.7 trillion in nominal terms. Sanyal said Japan is now just a little ahead of us at $4.1 trillion. "So, either very early next year or even you know this year, we will cross Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy," Sanyal added. According to him, Germany is a $4.6 trillion economy and it is not growing, so makes it a static target. "Maybe in two years, we will go past Germany. So, I think in terms of becoming the world's third largest economy, we are reasonably now close to the target," he said. Sanyal argued that the government should not push any fiscal move to accelerate economic growth to 8-9 per cent. "If you get it, great, but anything around 7 per cent compounded over time is a very good growth rate. "We shouldn't get too excited about 9 per cent," he said. Sanyal said compounding of growth is the single most important thing as this will generate jobs and taxes. While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Fitch Ratings have estimated India's growth at 7 per cent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), S&P Global Ratings and Morgan Stanley projected a 6.8 per cent growth rate for FY25. "Do not get emotional about trying to hit a very high growth rate in any particular year," he emphasised. Sanyal pointed out that there are other countries, for example in Southeast Asia, which were in our position in the mid-90s. "You will remember Indonesia, Thailand and so on, and for a while, they were doing very well. And then it all blew up in the Asian crisis," he said. Sanyal emphasised that there is no need to mess around with the financial system trying to support growth. "Do not mess around with your fiscal system, your monetary system, your current account and so on," he said. Responding to a question on the internationalisation of the rupee, Sanyal said it is about converting the rupee into a hard currency. "We only aspire over the next decade or so to become a hard currency like many of the others, we are not attempting to become the world's anchor currency," he added. Sanyal said India's limited purpose is to convert the rupee into a hard currency over the next decade in terms of its wider usage as the currency in which people trade, in particular, the country's own trade. "It is a currency in which other governments in the world hold their reserves in terms of being a part of the IMF SDR basket. So, that is a limited objective," he said. In that context, Sanyal said, the government has done a few things, including an inflation rate targeting mechanism. "...So that the rupee essentially becomes a commonly used hard currency, at least commonly used for things relating to India," he said.
Source: Business Standard
New Delhi: The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) expects India’s merchandise exports increase around 14% to $500- 510 billion in FY25 from $437 billion in 2023-24, led by technology driven sectors of exports such as machinery, electrical and electronic, automobile, pharma and biotechnology which have received a fillip from the production-linked incentive schemes.. “The export prospects are better for FY25…We are looking at merchandise exports between $500-510 billion in 2024-25. In services, we expect exports to be around $ 390-400 billion for the current fiscal,” said FIEO President Ashwini Kumar, adding that India’s traditional markets such as the US and Europe and utilisation of India’s free trade agreements with Australia, the UAE and EFTA will boost exports. Among services, management consultancy and medical tourism are seen growing. The apex exporters body also hasn’t ruled out dumping of Chinese goods in the wake of the US imposing high duties on goods such as EVs, batteries and high-end technology products. “Dumping isn’t ruled out because China is sitting on overcapacity and one of its large markets may close its doors to it,” he said. ADVERTISEMENT Exporters have sought visas for Chinese technicians and engineers who are required to visit India for setting up factories or machinery here. “Workers from Taiwan come at four times the price and those from Vietnam are not as expert as the Chinese workers,” said an exporter. highlighted the concerns with regard to labour-intensive sector of exports like knitted and woven garments, made-ups, footwear, gem and jewellery, in which the country lost market to its competitors. Red Sea crisis Moreover, sea freight has risen to $3,700 from $700 due to the conflict in the Middle East which also added to the transit time. On the Red Sea crisis, it said that it is having a “significant negative impact on both sea freight and air freight, which is in turn affecting Indian exports” Rerouting ships has impacted the bottom lines of exporting companies which is especially harsh for products having large volume low value like commodities, where costs have reportedly gone down. “The longer routes caused by rerouting mean extended shipping times. This has led to disrupt delivery schedules and lead to spoilage of perishable goods,” it said. As some goods traditionally shipped by sea are being diverted to air due to the crisis, there is a rise in air freight demand which has pushed air cargo costs upwards, with some reports suggesting a jump of over 300% for routes like India to Europe. “Overall, the Red Sea crisis is creating a challenging situation for Indian exporters,” FIEO said, adding that India has lost few orders due to high freight rates particularly in metal and commodities. Besides reduced competitiveness, delays and higher costs can disrupt the smooth flow of Indian exports, leading to potential order cancellations and reputational damage. He said that due to the crisis, near sourcing is happening in the affected countries and clients are cautious on how much stocks they should hold. Ajay Sahai, director general, FIEO said that now while negotiating contracts, both the exporter and importer take the hit of increased prices. Sahai said that countries are looking at India for long term supply. FIEO has suggested the government to setup an export development fund to support MSMEs with a budgetary outlay of 1% of last year’s exports, higher share of export credit in the net bank credit and a sub-target for exports within overall target for the priority sector lending. It also pushed for a linkage between FDI and tariff policy coupled with standards and quality control.
Source: The Economic Times
Container volume is expected to grow by 8 per cent to 342 million tonnes this fiscal despite the risk of a prolonged Red Sea crisis, CateEdge Ratings said on Thursday.
The slated connection of the dedicated freight corridor to Jawaharlal Nehru Port in FY26, along with capacity additions by ports, is expected to drive growth in container volume over the medium term, it added. Cargo at Indian ports is dominated by 3Cs -- crude oil (termed as Petroleum Oil Lubricants (POL), coal and containers. These three commodities represent 74-75 per cent of total cargo throughput handled by ports. Over the past 3 years ended FY24, POL witnessed a moderate CAGR of 4 per cent while coal and container volumes witnessed 13 per cent and 9 per cent growth, respectively, CateEdge Ratings said. The rating agency said it expects coal cargo throughput at ports to grow at a CAGR of 2-3 per cent between FY24 and FY26, despite an anticipated decline in coal imports by 3-4 per cent due to increased domestic coal production. The share of coastal cargo is expected to rise from 34 per cent in FY23 to 42 per cent by FY26, as per CareEdge Ratings report. "This growth will primarily be driven by the coastal movement of coal along the eastern coast, complemented by added capacities and synergistic benefits. The Government's focus on building agglomeration infrastructure for specific sectors like steel and cement also supports the expected increase in coastal movements at ports," said CareEdge Ratings Director Maulesh Desai. The coal throughput witnessed healthy growth from 292 MMT in FY22 to 367 MMT in FY23. The growth in throughput was supported by increased power generation from thermal plants by 6 per cent to 1,059.9 billion units, according to CareEdge Ratings. Coastal throughput is expected to increase from 60 MMT in FY21 to 145-150 MMT in FY24, reflecting a healthy CAGR of around 35 per cent, as per the rating agency. The same was largely driven by an increase in cargo movement on the eastern coast with the ramp-up of overall volumes at Paradip, Gangavaram, Krishnapatnam, Dhamra and Gopalpur ports, it added. Contribution of coal cargo of the overall coastal volumes is estimated to increase from 22 per cent in FY21 to 38 per cent in FY24, it added. "The Red Sea crisis has led to an increase in voyage span by 15-20 days, in addition to higher freight rates. However, the capacity liners' readiness to expand container capacity'? owing to healthy profitability by chartering additional vessels, cascading capacity from other regions, and accelerating fleet renewal? bodes well for mitigating the increased transit times," Desai said. The impact on cargo, according to him, will primarily affect food grains and other perishable items, along with freight-sensitive or low-value cargo, which is estimated at 10-15 per cent of container volumes. India relies on the Suez Canal route for its trade with European countries, North Africa, and the Americas, which collectively account for about 35 per cent of the country's total foreign trade, primarily in the container segment. However, the impact on cargo will primarily affect food grains and other perishable items, along with freight-sensitive or low-value cargo, which together constitute 10-15 per cent of the total volumes, CateEdge said. India's maritime sector is represented by the 12 major ports and more than 200 non-major ports along the 7,500 km of coastal line.
Source : Business Standard
India registered "very robust” economic growth performance and has become an alternative investment destination for many western companies as “less and less” foreign investment is going into China, an expert at the UN said as the global body revised upwards the Indian GDP growth for 2024. “India is also benefiting from more investments coming into India from other western sources as less and less foreign investment is going into China, western investment is going into China. India has become an alternative investment source or destination for many western companies. I think that is also benefiting India,” Chief of the Global Economic Monitoring Branch, Economic Analysis and Policy Division, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), Hamid Rashid, told reporters here Thursday. He was briefing on the mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 that has revised upwards India's growth projections for 2024, with the country's economy now forecast to expand by close to seven per cent this year. The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024, released Thursday, said, “India's economy is forecast to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2024 and 6.6 per cent in 2025, mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. Although subdued external demand will continue to weigh on merchandise export growth, pharmaceuticals and chemicals exports are expected to expand strongly.” The 6.9 per cent economic growth projections for India in the mid-year update is an upward revision from the 6.2 per cent GDP forecast made by the UN in January this year. On the Indian economic outlook, Rashid said “I think the drivers are very simple. Indian inflation has come down significantly. And that means that the fiscal position is not as constrained as in other countries and there is both support on the monetary side and the fiscal side in terms of stimulating growth.” He noted that in India “already the growth momentum actually was from last year and is continuing and also India's export has been pretty robust". "So I think given all these factors, this improvement is a very reasonable modest upward revision that we have done, given that what we see is happening in the Indian economy right now,” he added.
Source: Business Standard
India’s goods exports could rebound to hit $500 billion this year as global demand is slowly improving and prospects of a good monsoon could free up curbs on shipments of agricultural products, the country’s apex exporters’ group said on Thursday. Exports had slipped to $437.1 billion in 2023-24 after hitting a record high of $451.1 billion in the previous year. However, the persistent Red Sea crisis that has raised the cost and time for shipping goods to major markets, is beginning to hurt with a few orders already being lost in sectors like metals and commodities. Delays and higher costs of shipping can lead to more order cancellations and hurt India’s competitive edge in global markets, the Federation of Indian Exporters’ Organisations (FIEO) flagged. Using longer sea routes was disrupting delivery schedules and triggering spoilage of perishable goods, and exporters opting to send goods as air cargo, which had a limited capacity, had pushed up costs by as much as fourfold on some routes like India to Europe. “The Red Sea crisis is having a significant negative impact on both sea freight and air freight, which is in turn affecting Indian exports,” FIEO president Ashwani Kumar said. Flagging some structural issues affecting exporters, the FIEO chief noted that while exports contribute more than 20% of GDP, their share in the net bank credit was not commensurate. “The demand for the credit has gone up with rising inflation, high commodity prices and abnormal increase in sea as well as air freight,” he said, adding that slow offtake and longer transit times were also delaying export payments, so more credit was needed for longer durations. Noting that there had been a consistent decline in credit to exporters in recent times, FIEO mooted that the RBI consider prescribing a sub-target for export credit within the existing 40% target for banks’ priority sector lending.
Source: The Hindu
ISLAMABAD: Textile and clothing exports experienced slower growth for the second month in April, reversing the previous month’s double-digit increase. Exports inched up 0.37 per cent to $1.24 billion in April, compared to $1.23 billion in the same month last year, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday. This indicates stagnant orders from international buyers. On a month-on-month basis, the sector’s exports dipped 4.84pc. In 10MFY24, however, textile and clothing exports shrank 0.19pc to $13.68bn from $13.71bn in the same month last year. The decline in growth was attributed to rising production costs due to higher energy prices and a liquidity crunch. The textile industry has warned the government that further decline is likely if their grievances, including pending refunds, are not resolved on priority. The PBS data showed exports of readymade garments rose 17.73pc by value in April and 19.70pc by quantity, while knitwear grew 1.44pc by value and 59.54pc by quantity. Bedwear posted a negative growth of 7.11pc in value but posted a growth of 1.74pc in quantity. Towel exports rose 1.45pc in value and 6.25pc in quantity, whereas cotton cloth went down by 7.96pc in value but rose 12.53pc in quantity, respectively. Yarn exports fell by over 15.11pc in April over the same month last year. The exports of made-up articles, excluding towels, increased by 6.01pc, and tents, canvas and tarpaulin went down by 34.66pc in April. The import of textile machinery declined by 10.45pc in April, indicating that expansion or modernisation projects were not a priority. The import of synthetic fibre increased by 16.47pc, that of synthetic and artificial silk yarn by 30.75pc and other textile items by 85.53pc during the month. The import of raw cotton declined by 60.15pc. However, the import of second-hand clothes posted a growth of 60.90pc. In the first 10 months of FY24, total exports increased by 9.10pc to $25.27bn this year against $23.17bn over the same period last year.
Source: Dawn
For textile machinery manufacturers Turkey is a major trading partner, given the importance of its textile and garment industry on a global scale. With regards to Italy’s textile machinery sector, Turkey ranks second among foreign markets, with Italian textile machinery exports in 2023 amounting to a value of EUR 183 million. Accordingly, the relevance of Turkish market for Italian machinery manufacturers justifies their significant presence as exhibitors at the upcoming ITM industry trade fair to be held in Istanbul from 4-8 June 2024. In addition to the numerous Italian companies present at ITM with their very own booth or through agents, 16 companies will be exhibiting in an area organised by the Italian Trade Agency and ACIMIT – the Association of Italian textile machinery manufacturers (Hall MA, booth M004). The Italian pavilion will be hosting the following ACIMIT associated members: Bematic, Kairos, Macchine Carù, Martex, Noseda, Ommi, Pafasystem, Pinter Caipo, Proxima, Ramina, Ratti, Sicam, Siltex, Testa and Ugolini. ACIMIT president Marco Salvadè comments: “Italy’s textile machinery sector boasts a strong partnership tradition with Turkish textile manufacturers. From 2011 to 2023, the local textile industry invested roughly US$ 80 billion in new technologies, where more often than not these investments regarded the acquisition of Italian machinery. Indeed, Italy is one of the main suppliers of technology to local textile manufacturers, along with Germany and China.” “We want to strengthen this leadership position on the Turkish market,” added Salvadè. “Thanks in part to the latest technological developments being put forward by Italian machinery manufacturers, above all in the digitalisation of production processes, thereby enhancing efficiency and optimization. I’m quite sure that visitors at ITM will be able to find at the booths of our exhibitors the most suitable solutions to raise the level of competitiveness of Turkish textiles.”
Source: Innovations Textiles
The United States said Thursday it is blocking imports from dozens of China-based textile companies, citing forced labor concerns surrounding their products. Out of the 26 new additions to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act entity list, 21 were deemed to source and sell cotton from China's northwestern Xinjiang region on the wholesale market. Five others were also found to procure cotton from the region. The targets include cotton traders and warehouse facilities within China, mostly operating outside of Xinjiang. Beijing has been accused of incarcerating over one million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in a network of detention facilities in Xinjiang -- although officials strongly deny this. The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act bans the import of all goods from Xinjiang unless companies offer verifiable proof that production did not involve forced labor. "We will continue to execute on our textile enforcement strategy and hold the PRC accountable for their exploitation and abuse of the Uyghur people," said Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, referring to the People's Republic of China. Thursday's announcement marks one of the biggest expansions to the list, said the Department of Homeland Security.
The additions come into effect on Friday.
"Chinese cotton produced with forced labor in Xinjiang is flooding the global marketplace and entering the US market as downstream products," said Kim Glas, president of the National Council of Textile Organizations. Glas added that this undermines US domestic producers, saying the expansion of the list "sends a strong message to known offenders, enterprises and governments" that Washington is stepping up enforcement on the matter.
Source: barrons.com
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan earned $ 13,683.251 million from exports of textile products during the first ten months of the current financial year (10MFY24), the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported here on Thursday. The exports of the textile products however, witnessed a slight decline of 0.19 percent during July-April (2023-24) when compared to the exports of $ 13,709.246 million during July-April (2022-23). The textile commodities that witnessed positive trade growth included raw cotton, the exports of which grew by 319.91 percent, from $13.357 million last year to $15.944 million this year. Likewise, the exports of cotton yarn increased by 32.83 percent, from $ 636.832 million last year to $845.923 million this year and bed wear by 1.82 percent, from $ 2,249.778 million to $ 2,290.796 million. The export of towels also surged by 4.81 percent from $824.879 million to $864.547 million whereas the export of made-up articles up by 0.67 percent to $589.026 million from $585.102 million. The textile commodities that witnessed negative growth include cotton cloth, exports of which declined by 7.53 percent, from $1,684.724 million to $1,557.909 million; cotton carded or combed by 15.93 percent, from $0.996 million to $0.837 million; yarn other than cotton yarn by 20.76 percent, from $36.302 million to $28.766 million, and knitwear by 3.92 percent, from $3,712.066 million to $3,566.624 million. Likewise, the exports of tents, canvas and tarpaulin decreased by 16.52 percent, from $116.959 million to $97.632 million, ready-made garments by 0.57 percent, from $2,904.693 million to $2,888.177 million. The exports of art, silk and synthetic textiles also decreased by 12.08 percent declining from $342.917 million to $301.496 million, whereas the exports of all other textile materials also went down by 0.87 percent, from $600.642 million to $595.432 million. Meanwhile, on a year–on–year basis, the textile exports increased by 0.37 percent going up from $1,232.803 million in April 2023 to $1,237.316 million in April 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the textile exports, however, decreased by 4.84 percent when compared to the exports of $1,300.288 million in March 2024.
Source: Pakistan Today
FAISALABAD, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 16th May, 2024) The Environment Protection Agency (EPA) sealed the boiler of a sizing unit and imposed Rs 800,000 fine on three industrial units here on Thursday. Deputy Director Johar Abbas said here that two textile units located on Jaranwala-Khurrianwala road were fined Rs 300,000 each while a sizing unit near Chak No 70-JB was fined Rs 200,000. The action was taken under Punjab Environmental Protection (Smog Prevention and Control) Rules-2023.
Source: Urdu Point
